Lottery is a popular source of revenue for states. The games can be inexpensive scratch-off cards or pricier, more complex numbers games. The latter involve picking a sequence of numbers from a set, usually six, and winning the prize if you pick all the right ones. In 2021, US citizens spent over $100 billion on lottery tickets. The games are promoted as a way to raise money for things like education, veteran’s health, and other government programs without raising taxes. Whether that’s a good thing or not, people clearly love them.
Despite the popularity, many people don’t understand how the odds work in lottery. Some think they can improve their chances by choosing particular numbers, such as birthdays or anniversaries. But those aren’t the only factors. The number of tickets sold and when they were purchased also affects the odds. So do the number of previous winners. But all of those factors are irrelevant in a single drawing, which is a random event.
When a state establishes a lottery, it legislates a monopoly for itself; creates a state agency or public corporation to run the operation; begins operations with a modest number of relatively simple games; and then, due to constant pressures for additional revenues, progressively expands the game in size and complexity. In other words, it becomes a classic case of the incremental evolution of public policy, where decisions are made at the local level with little or no overall vision.
